Chris Buescher: The RFK driver moved ahead of Wallace in the standings, but he’s also right on the edge of missing the postseason if he doesn’t perform well in the next two months. The 17 car has been somewhat consistent, including a fourth-place run at Pocono, but at the rate playoff spots are being claimed, Buescher can’t rest easy unless he takes a checkered flag soon — and he’s very much capable of doing so any given week. At this point, he is RFK’s best hope of being in the 16-car playoff field.
Alex Bowman: Currently the final driver on the positive side of the playoff line, Bowman has had the least successful season of the Hendrick team in 2025. Kyle Larson has won 3 races and Byron has 1 win and the overall points lead, while Chase Elliott hasn’t won but sits as the top driver in the playoffs on points. Bowman has shown strength on road and street courses in the past, and Chicago is a strong chance for him to get that much-needed win to secure his playoff position, though Shane Van Gisbergen is likely the favorite to win.
Others: Drivers currently below the playoff line (including Ryan Preece, AJ Allmendinger, Erik Jones, Kyle Busch, Carson Hocevar, and Michael McDowell), could in theory point their way into the postseason, but most likely they’ll need to win. For Allmendinger and McDowell, road courses will be their best bet to get a victory, and McDowell is also strong on the drafting tracks. I’m not holding out much hope for Kyle Busch, just based on the equipment he’s driving, but he is a champion and could surprise everyone. Erik Jones making the playoffs would be huge for Legacy Motor Club. And with all his recent controversy, a win by Carson Hocevar to reach the playoffs would make some folks very happy and other very annoyed.
Will anyone qualify on points?
The most likely outcome in my view is we get 3 to 4 new winners in the next 9 races, the remainder being repeat winners, and either 1 or 2 drivers point their way into the playoff battle. At this point, those top two drivers would be Chase Elliott and Tyler Reddick, but even those two can't feel safe and must focus on notching a victory so they’re not thinking about points so much.
And in the craziest scenario, we could get 6 or more new winners in this final stretch, and at least one winner does not get a guaranteed spot in the playoffs — which would be unprecedented. For this to happen, the dominos would need to fall in a very extreme way, but I’ve seen just about everything in this sport and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if it did happen.
There’s already talk of NASCAR potentially updating the playoff setup for next season, so I would welcome this type of nuclear scenario that adds even more fuel to that discussion.
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